Yin and Yang, East and West: 2020 will see a convergence between the two worlds
China is set to become the number one economy by the early 2020s, perhaps even sooner. With the IMF expecting China’s economy to have grown 24% between 2011 and 2014, US growth is only predicted at 7.6%. China could potentially overtake the US this year. This exemplifies how, post the financial crisis of 2008, the world is seeing the emergence of a new economic order with markets in South East Asia continuing to excel in manufacturing and production. The narrowing gap between the economies of the East and West, global economic cycles and China’s productivity in the years to come, were discussed today at the Taxand Global Conference hosted by Taxand China in Shanghai.
Frederic Donnedieu de Vabres, Chairman of Taxand, the world’s largest independent global organisation of specialist tax advisors to multinational businesses, provides an overview of the keynote session presented by Andy Xie, the renowned Chinese economist:
“The birth of the millennium saw South East Asia, along with other parts of the emerging world, begin to meet eyes with the West. With such pull factors as lower corporation tax and cheaper labour, many of these states became mass manufacturers to satisfy the high demand of western consumerism. The biggest player often called ‘the factory of world’ is China.
“History is constantly punctuated with the rise and fall of state economies and the financial crisis of 2008 proved to be one of those events which sent the international economy on a different trajectory. It exposed the weaknesses of free market capitalism.
“However coming out of the recession new seeds have been sown for growth. The IMF, which reported China becoming the number one economy in the future, also declared that the likes of Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico now reside within the top 12 global economies. By contrast, high costs and lower growth push the UK and Japan further behind the US than in 2005. Emerging markets are now carving out a foothold for themselves within the global economic order and are closing the gap on the West.”
“There is no greater example of this convergence between East and West than the economies of China and the US, 2 countries which are entwined through trade. China now competes more closely than ever with the US for the economic throne. The constant manipulation of the valuation of the yuan and the dollar in order to make exports more competitive, is one of many battlegrounds where this competition is played out. Where the West, in the form of the US, used to dominate; now it has met its match.
“Whether China’s wealth will remain concentrated in commercial areas such as Shanghai and Beijing is questionable. China’s domestic investment in infrastructure is likely to decline as it extends into South East Asia. The country is also trying to reorient the economy from having so much dependency on cheap labour and exports, by increasing domestic consumption and encouraging a shift towards services. These initiatives will hopefully envision a 2020 East Asia which is thriving across all regions and distinct from the US, with a rich North and a poor South dictated by free trade."
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